Tuam Tshoj lub Silicon-Calcium Peev Xwm yog txav mus rau sab qaum teb thiab sab hnub poob - thiab cov khoom siv tau ua raws
Tuam Tshoj tuav kwv yees li 60-70% ntawm lub ntiaj tebSilicon{0}}Calciummuaj peev xwm ntau lawm hauv 2026, raws li IndexBox, tab sis cov furnaces tsis nyob qhov twg lawv tau tsim. Peev xwm tau drifted mus rau loj smelters nyob rau hauv Inner Mongolia, Ningxia thiab Qinghai, qhov twg lub hwj chim yog pheej yig dua. Rau cov neeg siv khoomSilicon{0}}Calcium rau steelmakingthiabSilicon{0}}Calcium rau casting, qhov kev hloov pauv rov sau cov kab tsheb thauj khoom, lub sijhawm ua haujlwm thiab cov credit sawv tom qab cov lus hais.
TL; DR
- Tuam Tshoj tus ntsiaSilicon{0}}CalciumMuaj peev xwm zaum ze 550,000–650,000 t / xyoo tawm tsam 400,000–500,000 t / xyoo lag luam (IndexBox, 2026).
- H1 2026 kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi yog 56.11%, nqis los ntawm 66.67%; tso zis poob 8,400 t rau 36,600 t (Tychains).
- Hluav taws xob ntawm 35-45% ntawm cov nqi nyiaj ntsuab rub cov smelters mus rau Inner Mongolia thiab Ningxia.
- Cov nroj tsuag me me uas tsis yog{0}} kev koom ua ke ntsib kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev tawm; cia siab tias tsawg dua, cov neeg sib tw loj dua.
Daim duab muaj peev xwm hauv cov lej
IndexBox muab Tuam Tshoj tus ntsiaSilicon{0}}Calciummuaj peev xwm ntawm kwv yees li 550,000-650,000 t / xyoo hauv 2026, tiv thaiv kev lag luam pom tseeb ntawm 400,000-500,000 t / xyoo. Qhov ntawd yoojyim 70-80% kev siv ntawm daim ntawv, ib daim duab uas zoo nkaus li zoo mus txog thaum nws ua tau raws li cov nroj tsuag tiag tiag khiav.
Tychains tau tshaj tawm cov xov tooj ntse dua. Tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev ua haujlwm thoob plaws Suav cov nroj tsuag tau soj ntsuam yog 56.11% hauv H1 2026, nqis los ntawm 66.67% hauv H1 2025, thiab tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig tau poob rau 36,600 t los ntawm 45,000 t - poob ntawm 8,400 t.
Qhov kev ncua deb ntawm 70-80% daim ntawv siv thiab 56.11% cov nqi khiav haujlwm tiag tiag yog zaj dab neeg ntawm kev ua lag luam no.
Vim li cas cov smelters tsiv mus rau sab qaum teb thiab sab hnub poob
Hluav taws xob yog kwv yees li 35-45% ntawmSilicon{0}}CalciumCov nqi tsim tawm nyiaj ntsuab, ib qho IndexBox, yog li ib kab lus txiav txim siab seb lub cub tawg puas tau nyiaj. Inner Mongolia, Ningxia thiab Qinghai nqa cov nqi lag luam qis dua thiab muaj kev sib koom ua ke ntawm kev tsim dua tshiab, uas tseem ceeb vim tias kev ua raws li kev qhia tam sim no nug qhov twg cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tuaj.
Hluav taws xob yog qhov kev txiav txim siab sib txawv
Ib lub smelter ntawm 12,000 kWh ib tonne saib tus nqi se raws li tus tub luam saib tus nqi pauv. Kev ua raws li ib puag ncig yog qhov kev thawb thib ob: kev tshuaj xyuas tau nruj txij li xyoo 2025, thiab tus nqi ntawm cov rooj sib tham tau kho ntau ntawm ib qhov chaw, yog li 60,000 t / xyoo cog kis nws thoob plaws ntau tshaj li ntawm 20,000 t / xyoo.
Qhov H1 2026 rally tsis kho
Cov nqi hauv tsev tau ntxiv txog +600 RMB/t ntawm qhov siab tshaj ntawm H1 2026 rally, ib Tychains (1 Lub Xya Hli 2026), tseem Tychains tus kheej H2 2026 kwv yees nyob hauv qab 9,000 RMB/t. Nyob rau sab export, Nqe-Saib kaw Tuam Tshoj FOB Shanghai nqi nce +3.40% q/q hauv Q1 2026 thiab +2.36% q/q hauv Q2 2026, nrog Q3 2026 tau piav qhia tias ruaj khov rau kev poob qis.
Ib qho tsis muaj zog tsim nyog chij hauv cov ntaub ntawv
Kev khiav hauj lwm- cov ntawv ntsuam xyuas tus nqi npog ib lub vaj huam sib luag ntawm cov nroj tsuag, tsis yog tag nrho cov kev lag luam, thiab kev ua tswv cuab ntawm pawg neeg hloov pauv raws li cov smelters tsis ua haujlwm. Tus nqi poob qis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam kev tawm ntawm cov qauv ntau npaum li qhov txiav tiag tiag. Nyeem 56.11% raws li cov lus qhia taw qhia, tsis yog kev suav pej xeem.
Qib sib xyaw: qhov twg cov npoo yeej muaj sia nyob
Cov qib granular thiab hmoov suav txog li 25-35% ntawm Suav kev noj hauv tsev, thiab qis-aluminium thiab qis- cov qib carbon muaj 15-25% premium, ob qho tib si hauv IndexBox. Ntau tshaj nyob rau hauv tus qauv -qibindustrial silicon{0}}Calciummuaj compressed margins qhov ntim loj tshaj plaws, yog li cov neeg tsim khoom sib xyaw ua ke tau coj lub peev xwm tshiab mus rau qhov hwm kawg.
Lub rooj sib tham Ca30Si60 txhais tau hais tias kwv yees li 30% calcium thiab 60% silicon; Ca28Si55 txhais tau hais tias txog 28% calcium thiab 55% silicon. Qee cov nplooj ntawv xa khoom hloov pauv cov duab no. Leej twg auditing aTuam Tshoj Silicon{0}}Calcium tsumyuav tsum thov ib daim ntawv pov thawj ntawm kev tsom xam rau qhov tshwj xeeb cua sov es tsis txhob tso siab rau lub rooj khoom.
Qhov kev hloov pauv txhais li cas rau cov neeg yuav khoom, ib cheeb tsam los ntawm cheeb tsam
North America
Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam pom tseeb raws li HTS 7202.99.20.00 nrog 5% lub luag haujlwm dav dav, thiab Tshooj 301 tariffs zaum saum rau Suav - cov khoom hauv paus. Reshoring peev tau nce kev txaus siab rau cov khoom siv hauv tsev, tab sis USSilicon{0}}CalciumLub peev xwm nyob twj ywm nyias, yog li feem ntau cov neeg yuav khoom khaws cia thaum lub sij hawm hedging keeb kwm.
European Union
CBAM cov theem kawg pib pib thaum Lub Ib Hlis 1, 2026. Daim ntawv pov thawj kev muag khoom qhib thaum 1 Lub Ob Hlis 2027, thawj qhov kev tshaj tawm thiab kev tso npe yuav poob rau 30 Sep 2027, thiab 50 t de minimis siv rau ib tus neeg xa khoom hauv ib xyoos. Ferroglobe nthuav dav European siab -puritySilicon{0}}Calciummuaj peev xwm los ntawm kwv yees li 20% (tshaj tawm Lub Ib Hlis 2025), qhov tseeb tsis yog - Suav xaiv ntawm qhov ntsuas.
Southeast Asia
Indonesia, Nyab Laj thiab Thaib tau ntxiv cov hlau thiab cov khoom tsim muaj peev xwm, noj cov khoom siv hauv Suav rau cov dej hiav txwv luv luv uas ua rau muaj peev txheej ua haujlwm tsawg. Peak- caij nyoog chaw nres nkoj congestion thiab hauv zos- cov ntsiab lus cov cai yog kev sib txhuam, tsis yog phab ntsa tariff.
Middle East, Kazakhstan-CIS thiab South America
Saudi thiab UAE steel nthuav dav tau ua rau Jebel Ali qhov chaw xa rov qab rauSilicon{0}}Calcium hlaumus rau sab hnub tuaj Africa thiab South Asia, CIS ntsib kev them nyiaj thiab kev tuav pov hwm kev sib txhuam ntau dua li cov nqi se, thawb cov khoom thauj los ntawm thib peb - lub teb chaws routing. Hauv South America, Mercosur tariff structures thiab qeeb kev lis kev cai ntawm Santos thiab Buenos Aires ntxiv lub lis piam ib zaug xwb - nyob rau hauv - lub sij hawm foundry tsis tuaj yeem nqus tau.
Ib tug counter- saib ntawm "txhua yam yog nyob rau hauv Suav teb" piav qhia
Zaj dab neeg sib sau caw ib tug tub nkeeg xaus lus: tias lubntiaj teb no Silicon{0}}Calcium marketyog ua lag luam Suav nrog zoo logistics. Qhov kev nyeem ntawv ntawd nco txog qib hwm. Ferroglobe (UK/EU), Elkem ASA (Norway) thiab Nyiv Hlau & Tshuaj muaj nyob rau hauv siab - qib purity qhov twg Suav ntim tsis cia li yeej, thiab Ferroglobe lub Ib Hlis 2025 European nthuav dav yog txhob txwm bet rau lwm txoj kev.
Qhov tseeb version yog nqaim: Tuam Tshoj yog consolidating txheem -qib muaj peev xwm, uas yog tiag tiag, tab sis qhov ntawd tsis yog lub ntiaj teb no dominance nyob rau hauv txhua txhua specification.
Sijhawm Sijhawm: Muaj peev xwm hloov pauv hauv Suav Silicon-Calcium nroj tsuag
Hnub tim tseem ceeb tom qab kev hloov pauv, los ntawm IndexBox (2026) thiab Tychains (1 Lub Xya Hli 2026).
Sab qaum teb muaj peev xwm nyob twj ywm fragmented hla ntau qhov me me thiab nruab nrab - qhov chaw loj. Cov npoo nyias nyias ntawm cov qib txheem twb pom lawm, thiab cov neeg tsim khoom sib koom ua ke pib ncua kev nthuav dav.
Kev tshuaj xyuas ib puag ncig nruj thiab kev sib koom ua ke pib ua siab ncaj. Cov me me uas tsis yog- cov smelters sib xyaw ua ke pom kev siv nyiaj tsis raug cai tsis tuaj yeem kis thoob plaws tonnage txaus, thiab thawj nthwv dej ntawm idling pib.
Qhov nruab nrab kev khiav hauj lwm poob mus rau 56.11% los ntawm 66.67%, thiab cov zis poob mus rau 36,600 t los ntawm 45,000 t (Tychains). Qhov sib txawv nruab nrab ntawm kev teeb tsa thiab kev khiav hauj lwm muaj peev xwm dhau los ua lub ntsiab lus ntawm kev ua lag luam.
Kev muaj peev xwm tsiv teb tsaws chaw mus rau Inner Mongolia, Ningxia thiab Qinghai nrawm, uas tau tsav los ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob qis dua thiab txhim kho kev muaj peev xwm txuas ntxiv tau (IndexBox). Tshiab tonnage loj dua thiab ntxiv los ntawm cov chaw nres nkoj sab hnub tuaj xa tawm cov neeg yuav khoom ib txwm siv.
Tychains kwv yees tus nqi hauv tsev qis dua 9,000 RMB / t, tom qab kev sib tw H1 uas tau ntxiv tsuas yog txog +600 RMB / t ntawm nws lub ncov. Cov nqi xa tawm tau nce siab +3.40% q/q hauv Q1 thiab +2.36% q/q hauv Q2, nrog qhov ruaj khov- rau- poob qis Q3 qhov pom (Nqi-Saib, 2026).
CBAM daim ntawv pov thawj kev muag khoom qhib rau 1 Lub Ob Hlis 2027, nrog thawj qhov tshaj tawm thiab tso cai rau 30 Cuaj hlis 2027 - lub ntsiab lus uas cov neeg yuav khoom nyob sab Europe pom cov nqi ntawm cov hauv paus hauv lawv cov ntawv xa nyiaj ntau dua li hauv tsab cai luv luv.
Cov lus nug nquag
Silicon-Calcium muaj peev xwm ntau npaum li cas Tuam Tshoj muaj nyob rau hauv 2026?
IndexBox kwv yees Tuam Tshoj tus ntsiaSilicon{0}}Calciummuaj peev xwm ntawm 550,000-650,000 t / xyoo hauv 2026, tawm tsam kev lag luam pom tseeb ntawm 400,000-500,000 t / xyoo. Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias 70-80% kev siv ntawm daim ntawv. Tus nqi khiav haujlwm tiag tiag yog qis dua: Tychains tau sau tseg 56.11% hauv H1 2026. Cov peev txheej suav nrog lub qhov cub tsis muaj zog uas tuaj yeem rov pib dua thaum cov nqi hluav taws xob poob.
Vim li cas Suav Silicon-Calcium nroj tsuag hloov mus rau Inner Mongolia thiab Ningxia?
Tus nqi hluav taws xob yog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb. Hluav taws xob yog li ntawm 35-45% ntawmSilicon{0}}CalciumCov nqi tsim khoom siv nyiaj ntsuab (IndexBox, 2026), thiab Inner Mongolia, Ningxia thiab Qinghai muab cov nqi qis dua rau kev lag luam ntxiv ntxiv rau kev loj hlob zuj zus ntxiv. Kev ua raws li ib puag ncig kuj nyiam qhov chaw loj dua, txij li cov khoom siv tshuaj txhuam hniav, kev saib xyuas thiab kev tso cai raug nqi ib yam ntawm 20,000 t / xyoo cog li ntawm 60,000 t / xyoo ib.
Dab tsi ua rau poob hauv Suav Silicon-Calcium kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi hauv H1 2026?
Tychains tau tshaj tawm txog H1 2026 nruab nrab kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi ntawm 56.11%, piv rau 66.67% hauv H1 2025, nrog cov zis tawm 8,400 t rau 36,600 t. Peb lub zog ua ke: kev tshuaj xyuas ib puag ncig tshem tawm marginal smelters, tsis muaj zog thov los ntawm kev txo qis Suav cov khoom siv hlau tsis zoo, thiab cov neeg tsim khoom idling rauv thaum tus qauv - qib margins nyob twj ywm compressed.
Kev tshuaj xyuas ib puag ncig Suav cuam tshuam li cas rau Silicon-Calcium mov?
Kev tshuaj xyuas nce tus nqi tas li ntawm kev ua haujlwm smelter, thiab cov nroj tsuag me me uas tsis yog -kev sib xyaw ua ke tsis tuaj yeem nqus tau los ntawm qhov txwv tonnage. IndexBox sau ntawv me me uas tsis yog - kev sib xyaw smelters ntsib kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev tawm mus raws li kev tshuaj xyuas hnyav. Cov nyhuv ntawm cov khoom yog maj mam: muaj peev xwm tawm hauv cov kauj ruam raws li lub tshuab hluav taws xob tsis ua haujlwm, thiab rov pib dua yog nyob ntawm seb lub xaib tseem tuav tau ntawv tso cai.
Puas yog Tuam Tshoj tseem yog cov tseem ceeb ntawm Silicon-Calcium exporter hauv 2026?
Yog, ntawm ntim. IndexBox tso Tuam Tshoj ntawm kwv yees li 60-70% ntawm lub ntiaj tebSilicon{0}}Calciummuaj peev xwm ntau lawm nyob rau hauv 2026, thiab export code 72029990 khaws cov khoom txav los ntawm Shanghai thiab Tianjin. Dominance tsis txuas mus rau txhua qib, txawm li cas los xij: Ferroglobe nthuav dav European siab - muaj peev xwm purity li ntawm 20% thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2025, thiab cov neeg tsim khoom Norwegian thiab Nyij Pooj tseem ua haujlwm hauv cov lus qhia tshwj xeeb.
Tus nqi hluav taws xob zoo li cas Tuam Tshoj Silicon-Calcium tus nqi pib?
Hluav taws xob yog kwv yees li 35-45% ntawm cov nqi tsim khoom (IndexBox, 2026), qhov loj tshaj plaws ib qho kev tawm tswv yim. Qhov ntawd ua rau smelter kev lag luam rhiab heev rau kev hloov kho nqi thiab lub sijhawm- ntawm - siv sijhawm teem caij. Cov xeev uas muaj kev tsim dua tshiab tuaj yeem muab cov nqi qis dua, uas yog vim li cas muaj peev xwm tsiv teb tsaws chaw. Nws kuj txhais tau hais tias tus neeg yuav khoom tsaws tus nqi txav mus rau vim li cas tsis cuam tshuam nrog cov ntsiab lus alloy.
Dab tsi lwm qhov chaw muab khoom muaj nyob sab nraum Tuam Tshoj rau Silicon-Calcium?
Ferroglobe (UK/EU), Elkem ASA (Norway) thiab Nyiv Hlau & Tshuaj yog cov thawj coj tsis yog-Suav cov neeg tsim khoom, nrog Ferroglobe tau nthuav dav European siab -puritySilicon{0}}CalciumLub peev xwm los ntawm kwv yees li 20% raws li tau tshaj tawm thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2025. Cov ntim sab nraud Tuam Tshoj tseem txwv tsis pub dhau qhov kev thov thoob ntiaj teb, yog li tus nqi cuam tshuam qhov tsis txaus. Cov neeg yuav khoom feem ntau xaus nrog kev sib xyaw ua ke - hauv paus cog lus es tsis yog hloov pauv tag nrho.
Summary and 2026 outlook
Los ntawm qhov seem ntawm 2026, cia siab tias SuavSilicon{0}}Calciummuaj peev xwm ua kom qaij mus rau Inner Mongolia, Ningxia thiab Qinghai thaum tus qauv - qib kev khiav hauj lwm nyob qis dua 2024 qib. Tychains 'sub-9,000 RMB / t kev kwv yees hauv tsev thiab Nqe-Saib qhov ruaj khov- rau- poob qis Q3 kev xa tawm kev kwv yees taw qhia rau lub lag luam uas muab kev qhuab qhia, tsis xav tau kev loj hlob, teeb tsa tus nqi. Suav crude steel tso zis yuav tsum poob qis ntawm qhov qis -ib - tus lej txhua xyoo mus txog xyoo 2030, suav qhov loj tshaj plaws siv kawg ntu.
Ob yam no tsab xov xwm yuav tsis thov. Nws yuav tsis kwv yees qhov tshwj xeeb 2027 tus nqi, vim hais tias cov ntaub ntawv hais txog muab ntau yam thiab cov kev taw qhia hu xwb. Tsis yog nws yuav lees paub tias kev muaj peev xwm tsiv teb tsaws chaw txuas ntxiv mus rau qhov tam sim no, txij li kev hloov pauv tus nqi hluav taws xob, txoj cai them nyiaj hauv xeev thiab cov kev xav tau ntawm cov hlau tsis zoo tuaj yeem hloov pauv cov lej hauv ib lub hlis twg.
Ib daim duab saum toj no tsis suav nrog IndexBox, Tychains, Nqe-Saib, KPMG lossis PwC yuav tsum tau nyeem raws li kev kwv yees es tsis yog qhov ntsuas.
Hais txog tus neeg muag khoom
Zanew Hlau coj ntau tshaj 30 xyoo ntawm kev tsim khoom hauv ferroalloys thiab metallurgical cov ntaub ntawv, xa tawm mus rau ntau tshaj 100 lub teb chaws. Peb lub Hoobkas thiab chaw ua lag luam nyob ntawm 25th Floor, Huafu Commercial Center, Wenfeng District, Anyang City, Henan Province - ib feem ntawm ntev -tsim AnyangSilicon{0}}Calciumpawg. Rau cov lus qhia tshwj xeeb lossis cov ntaub ntawv xa tawm, sau rausales@zanewmetal.com.
Yog tias koj tab tom rov ntsuas keeb kwm tom qab 2026 muaj peev xwm hloov pauv, xa koj cov qib, lub hli tonnage thiab qhov chaw nres nkoj. Peb yuav xa rov qab ib qho kev qhia tshwj xeeb- cov lus sib dhos, daim ntawv pov thawj ntawm kev tshuaj xyuas rau cov cua sov uas muaj, thiab lub qhov rais hla qhov tseeb es tsis yog qhov zoo.