Hauv ib kab lus:Covzinc hlau kev lag luamzaum ntawm kev sib tshuam ntawm ob zaj dab neeg hauv 2026. Upstream, refined zinc yog nyob rau hauv qhov tseebmuab nyem- LME cov khoom lag luam nyob ze peb - xyoo qis, kev kho mob smelter raug nqi tob rau hauv thaj chaw tsis zoo, thiab International Lead thiab Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) tau kho nws qhov nyiaj tshuav 2026 los ntawm 271,000 t tshaj tawm mus rau 19,000 t deficit. Downstream, xav tauzinc thermal spray hlauua kom dav dua nws cov choj qub qub-thiab- tank niche, rub los ntawm cua zog, kab sib chaws infrastructure, marine engineering thiab electronics shielding. Cov txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev lag luam: cov nqi nkag siab dua thiab hloov pauv ntau dua, cov ntsiab lus qiv nyiaj nruj dua ntawm cov hlau, thiab kev loj hlob zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam-qib thiab specification- qib cov neeg tsim khoom.
Qhov twg lub lag luam sawv tam sim no
Cov lus hauv qab no qhia txog cov ntsuas peb taug qab txhua lub limtiam thaum npaj cov khoom tsim thiab nqi rau99.99% zinc tsuag hlau:
| 📊 Qhov taw qhia | Kev nyeem ntawv kawg (Aug – Sep 2026) | Kev taw qhia |
|---|---|---|
| LME 3M zinc | USD 3,855–4,065/t; thawj kaw tshaj USD 4,000/t rau 9 Sept | ⬆️ Plaub-xyoo siab |
| LME warehouse stocks | ≈ 88,000 t (14 Aug), −21% hauv 30 hnub | ⬇️ Peb -xyoo qis |
| Concentrate TCs | Tsawg li −USD 110/t (Fastmarkets) | ⬇️ keeb kwm qis |
| 2026 Market Balance (ILZSG) | 19,000 t deficit (Lub Plaub Hlis hloov kho) | ↩️ Los ntawm cov nyiaj seem |
| Ntiaj teb no zinc thov | 14.00 Mt kwv yees, +1.3% y/y | ⬆️ Kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua |
| Tuam Tshoj refined tso zis | 17-hli siab; H1 xa tawm 20,800 t (+67.8%) | ⬆️ Tab sis arbitrage kaw |
Muab sab: ib nyem uas tsis kam tshem
⛏️ Zaj dab neeg mining tau tsim muaj peb xyoos. Tom qab cov khoom lag luam mined poob rau peb xyoos sib law liag, 2025 xa 4.8% rov qab thiab kev lag luam xav tias qhov teeb meem tau daws. Nws tsis yog: Lub Ib Hlis-Tsib Hlis 2026 kuv cov khoom lag luam tau nce tsuas yog 1.1%, nrog rau qib qis ntawm kev ua haujlwm loj thiab Middle East tensions cuam tshuam Iranian ore xa khoom. Tsawg heev mines tshiab sab nraum Tuam Tshoj tau mus txog ntau lawm.
🔥Suab nkauj kho siab heev. Cov nqi kho mob tsis zoo txhais tau hais tias cov smelters tau them cov mines kom txais kev mloog zoo - tsis muaj kev ruaj ntseg rau txhua lub sijhawm. Cov txiaj ntsig pom nyob rau hauv 2026: Suav smelter txiav kwv yees li ntawm 800,000 t ntawm txhua xyoo muaj peev xwm, Glencore's H1 tso zis poob 21% rau 365,600 t, thiab tsis tau npaj tawm ntawm Kazzinc (kev tawg) thiab Nexa's Cajamarquilla (hluav taws). Kev rov pib dua nyob sab Europe tau txwv ntxiv los ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob uas tseem zoo dua ua ntej - cov cai muaj kev kub ntxhov.
🚢 Zaj dab neeg logistics yog qhov txawv tshaj plaws. Cov hlau seem muaj nyob - hauv Suav teb. Tab sis nrog kev xa tawm arbitrage kaw los ntawm 13% VAT, cov nqi thauj khoom thiab cov lus hais- lub sijhawm tsis sib haum, cov hlau ntawd nyob hauv tsev. Lub caij no, cov nqi them lub cev tshaj LME tau mus txog USD 230–260 / t hauv Rotterdam piv rau USD 120–160 / t hauv Asia, ib qho kev sib kis ncaj qha mus rau tus nqi tsaws ntawm cov xaim xaim xaim hauv Europe thiab North America.
Xav tau sab: qhov twg zinc hlau yeej
🏗️ Classical anticorrosion tseem yog pob txha.Galvanizing-chav tiv thaiv - kub-dip thiab metallizing ua ke - tso nyiaj rau ntau tshaj li ib nrab ntawm lub ntiaj teb zinc noj, thiab 2026 xav tau los ntawm infrastructure, rail thiab grid tej yaam num tau nyob ruaj khov. Rau cov qauv loj heev kom kub -dip (bridge girders, xauv rooj vag, penstocks, TV masts),arc-txhaj tshuaj zinc hlau txheejRaws li ISO 2063 tseem yog tus kws tshaj lij txoj kev xaiv, muab kev tiv thaiv cathodic tsis muaj qhov txwv loj thiab tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom ua haujlwm.
🌬️ Renewables yog lub cav loj hlob.Cua turbine towers, offshore substation platforms thiab hnub ci tracker qauv tag nrho qhia zinc los yog zinc -aluminium sprayed coatings - feem ntau nrog duplex systems (txhaj tshuaj hlau + sealer) mus txog txij nkawm ntawm 25 xyoo los yog ntau tshaj. Txhua gigawatt ntawm lub peev xwm ntsia tau yog, ntsiag to, ob peb puas tonnes ntawm zinc hlau thov.
📡 Electronics yog qhov ntsiag to thib ob pem hauv ntej.Zinc thiab zinc- alloy metallizing hlau yog txau rau ntawm lub hau capacitor kawg thiab yas vaj tse rau EMI / RF shielding. Ntu no yuav finer diameters (1.2–1.6 mm) thiab siab purity, thiab nws yog tsawg tus nqi - rhiab tshaj li kev tsim kho kev lag luam - ib tug structural kev them nyiaj yug rausiab -purity zinc hlaucov neeg tsim khoom.
🌊 Marine thiab offshore upgrading rau alloys.Hauv thaj chaw txaws thiab ntsev- hnyav hnyav, cov cim qhia tau nce zuj zus los ntawm cov zinc ntshiab mus rauzinc{0}} txhuas hlau (Zn85Al15, Zn95Al5), uas muab kev tiv thaiv kev txi nrog kev ua haujlwm zoo dua hauv cov tshuaj chloride thiab SO₂- thaj chaw nplua nuj. Cov neeg tsim khoom muaj peev xwm kos ob qho tib si ntshiab thiab hlau hlau rau EN ISO 14919 tab tom sib koom.
Qhov no txhais li cas rau cov neeg yuav khoom thiab cov neeg xa khoom hauv 12 lub hlis tom ntej
🧭 Cia siab tias cov txheej txheem siab dua, qee zaus ua nruj ua tsiv, tus nqi.Tus broker kwv yees rau 2027 pawg nyob ib puag ncig USD 3,615–3,700 / t - hauv qab no qhov chaw tab sis deb tshaj li 2023–2025 tus qauv. Cov peev nyiaj ntawm lub hauv paus tsis yog cia siab tias yuav rov qab los rau USD 2,500 / t.
🧭 Cov ntawv pov thawj zoo dhau los ua riam phom lag luam.Thaum hlau raug nqi USD 4,000 / t, lub thawv tsis lees paub yog rau - daim duab teeb meem. Cov neeg yuav khoom tau nce ntxiv hais txog EN ISO 14919 lossis ASTM B833 xaim nrog 3.1 zeb xeem daim ntawv pov thawj, txoj kab uas hla kam rau ua pov thawj thiab spool- hom ntawv lav rau pem hauv ntej. Cov neeg tsim khoom uas tsis tuaj yeem sau purity yuav raug nqi raws li seem, tsis yog hlau.
🧭 Regional supply chains yog re-shaping.Cov neeg yuav khoom nyob sab Europe ntsib cov nqi them siab tshaj plaws thiab lub sijhawm rov ua dua ntev tshaj plaws; Cov neeg lag luam Esxias tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm qhov ze rau Suav cov khoom tsim tawm. Cov neeg muag khoom tuav cov khoom lag luam hauv zos ntawm cov ntawv pov thawj xaim hauv Rotterdam lossis Houston tau txais lawv cov paj xyoo no.
🧭 Saib ob daim kab xev.Ua ntej, qhov qhib tiag tiag ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev ua kom zoo dua -zinc xa tawm qhov rais - uas yuav txo qis kev nruj sab hnub poob hauv ib lub hlis twg. Qhov thib ob, LME cov khoom lag luam: qis dua 50,000 t qhov nyem nce ntxiv; rov tsim dua 120,000 t teeb liab normalization. Ob qho xwm txheej yuav rov- nqi txhua qhov qhib hais hauv khw.
🧪 Ib daim ntawv los ntawm cov khoom hauv pem teb.Peb kos zinc hlau los ntawm electrolytic zinc ntawm 99.99% yam tsawg kawg nkaus purity, ntawm nruam casting thiab kos kab, thiab sim txhua batch rau txoj kab uas hla kam rau ua (feem ntau yog +0/−0.05 mm), tensile lub zog thiab deg mob ua ntej spooling. Hauv kev lag luam nruj, cov xaim pheej yig tshaj plaws tsis tshua muaj cov txheej txheem pheej yig tshaj - noj cov teeb meem, spool rejects thiab rework nqi ntau dua tus nqi koj txuag ntawm cov hlau.
Cov lus nug nquag
1. Puas yog zinc hlau ua lag luam loj hlob lossis poob qis hauv 2026?
Loj hlob, ntawm ob txhais ceg. Ntiaj teb no refined zinc xav tau kwv yees ntawm 14.00 lab tonnes rau 2026 (+1.3%), thiabthermal spray hlauntu yog outgrowing qhov nruab nrab, txhawb los ntawm cua fais fab kev tsim kho, daim phiaj infrastructure, marine engineering thiab electronics shielding daim ntaub ntawv.
2. Puas yuav cov khoom nyem xaus sai sai?
Tsis tam sim ntawd. Cov nqi kho mob tsis zoo, peb-xyoo-LME cov khoom lag luam qis thiab kaw Suav xa tawm arbitrage tag nrho taw qhia kom nruj lub cev muaj los ntawm tsawg kawg Q4 2026. Kev txiav txim siab hloov mus saib yog LME cov khoom lag luam ruaj khov kho dua siab dua ~ 120,000 t thiab ib qho kev rov qhib dua ntawm Tuam Tshoj lub qhov rai xa tawm.
3. Cov nqi them nyiaj hauv cheeb tsam cuam tshuam li cas rau cov neeg yuav khoom zinc hlau?
ncaj qha. Lub cev zinc premiums nyob nruab nrab-2026 tau khiav USD 230–260/t hauv Rotterdam piv rau USD 120–160/t hauv Asia. Rau tus neeg xa khoom, qhov sib txawv - ntxiv rau cov khoom thauj - tuaj yeem txav tau tus nqi tsaws ntawm lub thawv zinc hlau los ntawm ob peb feem pua txawm tias tus nqi LME zoo ib yam.
4. Puas yog zinc hlau ntshiab raug hloov los ntawm zinc-aluminium hlau?
Tsis hloov - ntxiv. Ntshiabzinc hlautseem yog lub neej ntawd rau kev tiv thaiv kev tiv thaiv huab cua dav dav thiab qhov kev xaiv pheej yig tshaj plaws rau ib square meter.ZnAl alloy hlauyog teev nyob qhov twg chloride raug, SO₂ muaj kuab paug los yog siab dua cov kev pab cuam kub xav tau zoo barrier kev ua tau zoo. Cov neeg tsim khoom tsim feem ntau tam sim no muab ob qho tib si.
5. Cov ntaub ntawv zoo dab tsi uas yuav tsum muaj cov khoom siv zinc hlau loj?
Yam tsawg kawg nkaus: daim ntawv pov thawj 3.1 mill test rauEN ISO 14919 Kev Tswj Xyuas Kev Lag Luam(los yog ASTM B833) qhia cov tshuaj muaj pes tsawg leeg, txoj kab uas hla kam rau ua thiab cov khoom siv tshuab; ib daim ntawv ntim khoom; thiab daim ntawv pov thawj ntawm keeb kwm. Rau qhov project ua haujlwm, batch traceability ntawm ingot mus rau spool yog nce thov thiab tsim nyog insisting rau thaum hlau nqi siab.
6. Puas yog cov neeg xa khoom yuav tsum tuav cov zinc hlau Tshuag hauv lub khw no?
Qhov ntawd yog kev ua haujlwm - kev txiav txim siab peev, tab sis 2026 ib puag ncig - luv luv luv nqi siv tau, kev hla dej hiav txwv ntev, nce siab rov qab - tau muab nqi zog rau cov neeg xa khoom uas tuav cov ntawv pov thawj hauv zos. Qhov kev pheej hmoo yog kev kho tus nqi ntse; Qhov kev txo qis yog kev qhuab ntuas cov khoom lag luam tig thiab LME- txuas tus nqi ntawm ob sab kev yuav khoom thiab muag khoom.
🏭 Xav Tau Ib Tus Neeg Muab Khoom Uas Nyeem Ntawv Ua Lag Luam?
Peb tau kos duab thiab xa tawmzinc hlauthiab zinc-aluminium txau xaim rau ntau tshaj 30 xyoo, nrog rau hauv- tsev casting, kos duab, kuaj thiab xa tawm ntim hauv qab ib lub ru tsev. Yog tias koj tab tom tshuaj xyuas koj cov saw hlau xa khoom rau 2027 - ntim, cov qauv, kev xa khoom xa tuaj lossis LME-txuas cov nqi sib txuas - peb pab neeg zoo siab ua haujlwm los ntawm cov lej nrog koj.