Covvanadium pentoxidekev ua lag luam nyob rau hauv Suav teb tuav ibruaj khovtrajectory thoob plaws lub lim tiam kawg ntawm Lub Xya Hli 2026, nrogloj cov neeg tsim khoom haisrau98% flake V₂O₅tuav khov kho ntawmRMB 73,000 ib metric tonne( suav nrog VAT, ex- ua haujlwm) raws li kev sib tham thaum sawv ntxov ntawm Lub Xya Hli 28, raws li qhov tseebMysteelcov lus qhia txhua hnub.Pom kev lag luam kev lag luamntawm cov tub luam thiab cov neeg siv me me - nplai tau xaus rau hauv qhov nqaim ntawmRMB 72,000–72,500/tonnes, reflecting ibua tsis taus panruab nrabcov neeg yuav khoomnrhiavluv nqithiabcov muag khoomtsis kam lees hauv qab nokev them nyiaj yugqib. Lub caij no,ferrovanadium (FeV50)pauv nyob rau hauv ntau yam ntawmRMB 81,000–85,000/tonnes, thiabvanadium{0}}nitrogen alloy (V77N16)hloov tes ntawmRMB 108,000–111,000/tonne, ob qho tib si qhia tsawg lub lim tiam - ntawm - lub lim tiam hloov.Vanadium electrolyterauVanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs), teev ntawmV 1.7 mol/L, tseem quoted ntawmRMB 21,000-22,000 ib cubic meter, nrogroj teeb - qibkhoom commanding me ntsishwmdhauindustrial- qibcov khoom.
Saib rov qab rau ntawmnqe trajectorytshaj thawj rau lub hlis ntawm 2026, lubkev lag luam vanadiumtau nthuav tawm qhov txawv"nce ces poob"(los yog"ua ntej up, ces down") qauv uas ntes tau ntaucov neeg koom ua lag luamtawm tiv thaiv. Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg,Flake V₂O₅nqi sau a13.4% nce, propelled los ntawm kev sib xyaw ntawmua ntej-Suav Xyoo Tshiab Tshuaglos ntawmsteel mills, concentrated kev yuav khoomraudaim phiaj -scale zog cia tej yaam numuas tau ncua los ntawm lig 2025, thiabraw khoom txhawblos ntawm lojVanadium slag producersleej twg txhob txwm txwvqhov chaw muajnqamuab nqi. Covtus nqi nruab nrab peb lub hlis twgrau98%.hauv Q1 2026 sawv ntawmRMB 78,500 / ton, sawv cev axyoo-ntawm- xyoo ncentawm kwv yees8.2%. Txawm li cas los xij, lub zog hloov pauv sai heev hauv lub quarter thib ob raws li qhovlub caij tsim kho siab kawgraukev tsim kho steelfaded, thiabintegrated steelmakers- ntsej muag nyemcov nyiaj tau losntawm lawv tus kheejhlau tiavcov khoom - aggressivelyniasntawmvanadium alloykev yuav khoom. Txog rau lub Rau Hli lig,Flake V₂O₅tau rov qab los rauRMB 71,000-72,000 / tonnes, kov theem tsis pom txij li thaumtom qab - kis thoob qhov txhia chawntawm 2023. TheQ2 nruab nrabnyob ntawm roughlyRMB 74,200 / tonnes, nqes5.5%los ntawm Q1 thiabpoob 2.1%los ntawm tib lub sijhawm hauv 2025.
Nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj, lubkev ua lag luamnkag aqis-theem consolidationtheem, strading ntimqhuav li ob leegcov neeg tsim khoomthiabcov neeg siv khoomsawd atos-thiab-saibtus cwj pwm.Cov neeg tsim khoom loj- suav nrogPangang, HBIS Chengsteel, thiabJianlong Group- tuav lawvofficial daim ntawv teev nqintawmRMB 75,000/tonneraudaim ntawv cog lus ntauraulong -cov neeg koom tes, mastus nqi lag luam tiagrauchaw cargofeem ntau pauv ntawmRMB 1,500-2,000 / tonneshauv qab nolis nqe, qhiatsis muaj zog bargaining zogntawmtus tsim tawmhauvqhib kev lag luam. Covcov khoom muag txhua lub lim tiamntawmthaj chaw tsim khoom loj(Sichuan, Hebei, thiab Shaanxi) nce mus txog kwv yees li18,500 tonsraws li lub Xya hli ntuj 25, up3.2%txij thaum kawg-Lub rau hli ntuj, hais tiasmuabtseem mus outpacetam sim ntawd offtake.
Dab tsi underpins tam sim nonqe pem teb? Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam taw tes rau pebtus ncej ncej. Ua ntej,nruj raw khoom nqi ncetau ua tsis tau -negotiable.Sulfuric acid, ib keyleaching tus neeg sawv cevhauvKev rho tawm ntawm vanadium, tau surgedRMB 900-1,350 / tonnesdhau 12 lub hlis dhau los vimsulfur tsis txausthiabcov nqi ua raws li ib puag ncig; ammonium sulfate, siv hauvnag lossis dauscov kauj ruam, tau nce los ntawm kwv yees liRMB 700-1,000 / tonnes. Cov nochemical nqi hikestau ntxiv qhov kwv yeesRMB 2,500–3,000/tonnesmus raunyiaj ntsuabntawm kev tsim khoomV₂O₅los ntawmvanadium slaglos yogpob zeb thee, ua ib qhosustained nqi poobhauv qab noRMB 70,000/tonneunprofitable rausiab - tus nqi tsim khoom(tshwj xeeb yog cov neeg vam khompob zeb theekhoom noj khoom haus). Thib ob,kev lag luam concentrationtau rebounded sharply: lubkev ua lag luam sib koom ua kentawmtsoos loj - cov neeg tsim khoom(lub saum tsibintegrated vanadium -titaniumpawg) nce los ntawm82.3%nyob rau hauv 2023 rov qab mus rau92.45%los ntawm kawg-2025, tom qab ib tug series ntawmme -kuv kawthiabib puag ncig kev tawgntawmtxhaum cai roastingkev ua haujlwm. Qhov nooligopolistic qauvnyiaj pabcov thawj cojmuaj nuj nqistus nqi zog- lawv tuaj yeem txiav txim siabtso zisib ntus los tiv thaivqib nqi, raws li lawv tau ua thaum lub Plaub Hlis 2026 thaumPangangtxoflakekev xa khoom los ntawm8%rau ob lub lis piam sib law liag. Peb,tag nrho vanadium noj(hauvV₂O₅ sib npaug) tau rov pib duahom kev loj hlobtxij li xyoo 2024, nrog kev nce xyoo nce mus txog10,000 tonnesib xyoo - athov kev loj hlobtus nqi kwv yees5–6%txhua xyoo. Covkev thov nce ntxivtsis yog los ntawmtsoos steel reinforcement(uas tau stagnated vimTuam Tshoj cov cuab yeej poob qis), tab sis yuav luag tag nrho los ntawm covroj teeb lub zog cia sector, qhov twgVRFBdevelopers yog stockpipingvanadium electrolytenyob rau hauv kev cia siab ntawmqhov project commissioninghnub kawg.
Raws liMysteel covproprietary soj ntsuam ntawmvanadium roj teeb manufacturers, covtxhua xyoo vanadium xav taulos ntawm ntu no mus txog kwv yees li23,562 thauvV₂O₅ sib npauglos ntawm nruab nrab-2025, thiab tau kwv yees tias yuav dhau mus30,000 tonnesthaum kawg ntawm 2026. Qhov nokev thov nce ntxivlos ntawmlub zog cia kev lag luamyog maj offsetting lubtsis siv neeglos ntawmrebar producers, leej twg tau txiav lawvvanadium{0}}nitrogen alloyntxiv los ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm0.5 kg ib tonnes ntawm steelnyob rau hauv teb rauqis rebar nqithiabnruj dua kev tsim kho pib.
Txawm li cas los xij, luboversupplylus piav tsis tau tag nrho dispelled.Lub hli flake V₂O₅ ntau lawmthoob plaws Suav teb23 smelters taug qabtseem nyob hauv10,500-12,000 tonnes / hlithaj tsam thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj-Lub Plaub Hlis 2026, thiab tau nce mus rau11,680 thauv June (up3.97%hli- ntawm- hli thiab19.35%xyoo-rau- xyoo). Covmuaj peev xwm siv tus nqintawmcov neeg tsim khoom lojsawv ntawm84%thaum lub Xya Hli, tawm hauv qhov txaustsis muaj peev xwmuas yuav sai sai reactivated yog tiastus nqirally saumRMB 80,000/tonne. Qhov nokhoom overhangpiav qhia vim li cascov neeg koom ua lag luamtseem ceev faj txawmzoo thov signals.
Saibkev kwv yees hauv tsev, kev pom zoo ntawmtsib lub lag luam loj hauv Suav teb(xws liCITIC SecuritiesthiabHuatai Futures) yog li ntawdV₂O₅ nqiyuav txuas ntxiv muspauv tsis muaj zogdhau ntawmpeb lub hlis twg, aslub caij ntuj sov tuntawmsteel millstxokev siv alloythiabzog cia qhov projectcov khoom xa tuaj yog teem caij ntau rauLub Cuaj Hli-Lub Kaum Hli. A nqe reboundyuav tsum nyob rau hauvlig Lub Xya Hli mus rau lub Yim Hliraws litus tswv qhov projectmaj kom ruaj ntsegelectrolyteua ntej lubqhov rais kev tsim kho siab kawgkaw, tab sis lubrov qabzoo li capped ntawmRMB 78,000-80,000 / tonnesnyob rau lub sijhawm ze. Rau qhovpeb lub hlis twg, covnqe trendyog kwv yees tignce tojdua, tsav los ntawmxyoo- xaus khoomraulub caij ntuj no ntau lawmthiab covpuv - xyoo them peev nyiajkev siv raukab - sab cia, uas yuav incentivizekhoom sivkom nrawmVRFBkev xa tawm. Covtus nqi siab tshaj txhua xyoorau 2026 yog kwv yees nyob rau hauvRMB 92,000–95,000/tonnerange, nrog rautus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyookwv yees ntawm kwv yeesRMB 82,000/tonne- sawv cev ame ntsis 4% xyoo-ntawm- xyoo ncelos ntawm 2025 qhov nruab nrab ntawmRMB 78,800 / ton. Hauvkev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, European chawnqi rauV₂O₅ 98% mintau tuav ntawmUSD 8.60–9.20 per lb V₂O₅(sib npaug rau roughlyUSD 19,000-20,300 / tonnes), thaumTeb Chaws Asmeskastus nqi tau txais kev txhawb nqa los ntawmKev Tiv Thaiv Logistics Agency (DLA)kev yuav khoom ntawm ahwmntawm15–20%dhauimport parity, reflecting covtswv yim stockpilingtsav.
Hauv kev xaus, lubvanadium pentoxidekev ua lag luam kawg -Lub Xya Hli 2026 yog tus cwj pwm los ntawm afirming nqi hauv qab, txhawb los ntawmtus nqi nce nqithiabconcentrated lag luam qauv, tseem txwv los ntawmmuaj peev xwm ntau lawmthiabcua sov steel-sector thov. Covluv- lub sij hawm outlookhinges ntawmpace ntawm lub zog cia qhov project commissioning, thaum lubnruab nrab -termtrajectory yuav shaped los ntawmkev siv txoj cainyob rau hauv lub npe tshiabtswv yim ntxhiaframework thiabntiaj teb no mov teblos ntawmrecycled vanadiumqhov chaw, tshwj xeeb los ntawmRussiathiabNyiv.