Zinc Hlau Kev Lag Luam Outlook 2026 - Ob ILZSG Tshaj Tawm Yim Lub Limtiam Tsis Pom Zoo, thiab Qhov ntawd yog Zaj Dab Neeg
Hloov kho 9 Cuaj hlis 2026 · 10 min nyeem · Cov peev txheej hnub tim 23 Plaub Hlis Ntuj txog 7 Cuaj Hlis 2026
Luv teb
Xyoo 2026kev lag luam zinctsis yog luv ntawm hlau - nws yog luv ntawm kev mloog zoo, thiab cov no yog cov teeb meem sib txawv nrog cov moos sib txawv. ILZSG qhia a145,000 tonne tshaj ntawm cov zinc refined tshaj Lub Ib Hlis mus txog Plaub Hlisthaum kuv cov khoom lag luam loj hlob tsuas yog 1.1 feem pua. Meanwhile tus nqi smelters them rau cov txheej txheem concentrate tau ploj mustsis zoo: Fastmarkets soj ntsuam chaw TCs CIF Tuam Tshoj ntawm-USD 70 rau -USD 120 ib tonnethaum ntxov Lub Xya Hli. Rau ibzinc hlaubuyer qhov tshwm sim yog tias hlau yog muaj tab sis kim, thiab qhov kev pheej hmoo zaum nyob rau hauv tus nqi hloov dua siab tshiab es tsis yog nyob rau hauv lub cev khoom.
- Refined zinc tso zis+3.5%Jan-Apr 2026 vs kev siv+1.5%- qhov seem yog tiag
- Kuv tso zis nkaus xwb+1.1%; lub raj mis yog nruab nrab ntawm kuv thiab smelter, tsis yog ntawm kuv
- Tuam Tshoj imported954,000 tntawm zinc hauv concentrate, +16 feem pua, thiab tseem tsis tuaj yeem tshem tawm cov kab smelter
- LME cov khoom lag luam rov tsim dua 30 feem pua hauv peb lub lis piam (86,525 t ntawm 18 Lub Yim Hli → 113,100 t ntawm 7 Sep)
Ob lub ILZSG tshaj tawm, yim lub lis piam sib nrug, tsis pom zoo
Qhov no yog ib qho tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm nplooj ntawv, thiab nws tsis yog peb lub tswv yim - nws yog ob cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm tib lub cev.
Ntawm23 Plaub Hlis 2026Lub International Lead thiab Zinc Study Group tau tshaj tawm nws cov kev kwv yees lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav: lub ntiaj teb refined zinc xav tau nce 1.3 feem pua rau 14.00 lab tonnes, refined output nce 1.4 feem pua rau 13.99 lab tonnes, thiab yog li tag nrho - xyoo tsis txaus ntawm 19,000 tonnes.
Ntawm17 Peb 2026nws luam tawm qhov tseeb rau thawj plaub lub hlis: kev ua lag luam nyob hauvtshaj tawm los ntawm 145,000 tonnes, nrog tag nrho cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm txog 58,000 tonnes. Refined ntau lawm +3.5 feem pua. Kev siv +1.5 feem pua.
Dab tsi nws yuav siv rau ob qho tib si kom muaj tseeb
ILZSG Lub Plaub Hlis Ntuj kev kwv yees, tag nrho - xyoo 2026 qhov nyiaj tsis txaus -19 ktILZSG Lub Rau Hli tiag, Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj -Apr 2026 tshaj tawm +145 ktImplied yuav tsum, Tsib Hlis -Dec 2026 deficit -}164 kt / ktJ=+36.25 kt ib lub hlisMay-Dec xav tau pace -164 kt / 8 lub hlis=-20.50 kt ib lub hlis Yuav tsum tau viav vias 56.75 kt ib lub hlis (ib tug tig ntawm ~ 77 kt / hli tawm tsam) Ceeb toom: -19 kt ntawm 14.00 Mt kev ua lag luam yog 0.14%. Nws yog ib tug roundingdifference hnav raws li ib tug forecast. Tsis txhob tsim ib qho kev yuav khoom ntawm tus lej 0.14%.
Ob qhov kev soj ntsuam, thiab peb yuav muaj ob qho tib si raws li kev txiav txim ntau dua li cov ntaub ntawv. Ua ntej, a19,000 tonne deficit ntawm 14 lab tonne kev ua lag luam yog 0.14 feem pua- uas yog suab nrov, thiab txhua yam lus piav qhia uas ua rau tus nqi 20 feem pua ntawm tus nqi txav mus rau nws yog ua lwm yam nrog tus lej lej. Qhov thib ob, qhov sib txawv ntawm ob qhov kev tshaj tawm tsis yog kev txaj muag; kev kwv yees tau kho dua. Tab sis yog tias koj tab tom nyeem kev lag luam tawm tswv yim uas hais txog ib qho thiab tsis yog lwm tus, koj tau pom ib nrab ntawm daim duab.
Lub teeb liab tiag tiag yog tus nqi kho mob
Cov nqi kho mob yog tus nqi uas tus miner them rau lub smelter kom tig mloog zoo rau hauv hlau. Thaum TCs siab, mloog zoo yog plentiful thiab smelters muaj nqi zog. Thaum TCs mus tsis zoo, smelters tau them cov miners rau txoj cai ntawm kev khiav lawv cov nroj tsuag. Nov yog 2026.
| Hnub tim | Nws yog dab tsi | Qib (USD/dmt) | Ntsuas los ntawm |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Kev ntsuas txhua xyoo | 165 | Miner-smelter kev sib tham |
| 2025 | Kev ntsuas txhua xyoo | 80 | Miner-smelter kev sib tham |
| 2026 | Kev ntsuas txhua xyoo | 85 | Teck Resources / Kauslim Zinc |
| 16 Peb 2026 | Q2 kev qhia kev yuav khoom | 35 – 70 | Tuam Tshoj smelter yuav pab neeg |
| Lub Tsib Hlis 2026 | Spot, thawj qhov tsis zoo luam tawm | txog -50 | Chaw ua lag luam |
| 12 Peb 2026 | Spot CIF Tuam Tshoj | 50-80 Nws | Fastmarkets |
| Lub Rau Hli Ntuj-Lub Xya Hli 2026 | Spot CIF Tuam Tshoj | 70-120 Nws | Fastmarkets |
Ib qho piv txwv ntawm+85thiab ib lub khw muag khoom ntawm−120yog qhov sib txawv ntawm ntau tshaj USD 200 ib tonne hauv plaub lub hlis. Qhov ntawd tsis yog kev lag luam drifting; nws yog ib lub lag luam uas daim ntawv cog lus thiab kev lag luam lub cev tau tso tseg tsis piav txog tib yam.
Vim li cas cov smelters tseem khiav lawm
Yog tias cov smelters poob nyiaj ntawm txhua tonne ntawm −USD 120, vim li cas thiaj li tau ua kom cov zis tawm musnce 3.5 feem pua? Peb yog vim li cas, tag nrho lawv cov qauv es tsis yog heroic.
Dab tsi ua kom lawv khiav
- Sulfuric acid.Roasting concentrate ua SO₂, uas yog ntes thiab muag li kua qaub. Hauv qhov tsis zoo -TC ntiaj teb cov nyiaj tau los ua kua qaub ua qhov tseem ceeb rau kev khiav haujlwm.
- Them nyiaj byproducts.Nyiaj, tooj liab, thiab - tshiab hauv 2026 benchmark -germaniumcov nqi them.
- Tshuag poob.Cov nroj tsuag tseem ua haujlwm los ntawm kev mloog zoo yuav lub hli dhau los ntawm TCs zoo.
- Tus neeg raug txim qhov teeb meem.Raws li ib tug European concentrated tub luam muab tso rau Fastmarkets: yog hais tias ib tug smelter tseem ua tau nyiaj nws yuav tsis nres, vim hais tias txwv tsis pub ob txhais tes lub incremental txiaj ntsim rau tus neeg sib tw.
Dab tsi yuav txwv lawv
- TCsthiabbyproduct nqi deteriorating ua ke. Ob leeg ib leeg yeej muaj sia nyob.
- Poob acid infrastructure. Ntawm9 Peb 2026hluav taws ntawm Young Poong's Seokpo smelter hauv Kaus Lim Kauslim pib ze ntawm cov nroj tsuag sulfuric acid. Seokpo yog lub ntiaj teb thib rau - ua kom zoo zinc loj tshaj plaws ntawm kwv yees li325,000-400,000 t / xyoo.
- Nco ntsoov tsuas yog tsis muaj nyob ntawm tus nqi. Smelters tau tshaj tawm kev sib tw nyob ib puag ncig -USD 80 thiab tsis tuaj yeem ruaj ntseg ntim.
- Tshaj tawm ib nrab -2026 khiav-tus nqi txiav hauv Suav teb tsuas yog5 mus rau 10 feem pua, piav raws li kev saib xyuas-thiab- kev tu, tsis yog qauv.
Qhov kev sib xyaw ua ke - cov hlau ntau dua, kev lag luam tsis zoo hloov pauv, thiab kev lag luam smelter uas yuav tsis kaw - yog qhov kev txiav txim siab ntawm lub khw no. Nws ua rau cov nqi siab nrog qhov muaj txaus, uas yog qhov tsis meej pem tab sis ib puag ncig zoo rau tus neeg yuav khoom.
Cov ntaub ntawv dais, hais kom raug
Cov nplooj ntawv lag luam feem ntau muab cov ntaub ntawv bull rau koj thiab tom qab ntawd cov kab lus uas muaj kev pheej hmoo. Ntawm no yog dais rooj plaub nyob rau hauv tag nrho, vim hais tias nws yog tsawg kawg li muaj zog.
Refined zinc ntau lawm yog loj hlob ob zaug sai li kev noj (+3.5 feem pua tiv thaiv +1.5 feem pua). Tshaj tawm cov khoom muag tau nce 58,000 tonnes hauv plaub lub hlis. LME cov khoom lag luam tau mus los ntawm 86,525 tonnes ntawm 18 Lub Yim Hli mus rau 113,100 tonnes rau 7 Cuaj hlis, 30 feem pua rov tsim dua hauv peb lub lis piam, uas tsis yog qhov kev lag luam tshaib plab ua. Kuv cov khoom yognce, tsis poob: +1.1 feem pua, nrog Aljustrel hauv Portugal rov qab los ntawm Q4 2025 rov pib dua thiab Kipushi hauv DRC ramping, ib nrab offset los ntawm kev poob ntawm Antamina, Garpenberg thiab Red Dog. Thiab qhov tseem ceeb kawg siv yog galvanized steel, uas yog kev tsim kho- cov khoom lag luam - kev tsim kho qeeb tshem cov zinc thov sai dua li cov smelter tuaj yeem txiav.
Peb nyeem, thiab peb yuav sau nws li nyeem: lub zog 2026 yog aconcentrate-sab thiab nyiaj txiag- sab kev tshwm simuas tseem tsis tau ua kom zoo dua - hlau tsis txaus. Qhov ntawd ua rau nws yooj yim dua li tus nqi txiav txim pom zoo.
Peb qhov kev tshwm sim uas yuav daws tau nws
| Yog koj pom qhov no… | Qhov rai | … txhais tau tias |
|---|---|---|
| Spot TC hauv qab -USD 50/dmtthiabSuav refined tso zis ntau xyoo rau xyoo | Ib lub quarter tag nrho | Lub concentrate nyem tau dhau los ua lub cev. Cia siab tiag tiag refined nruj thiab ob txhais ceg nce. |
| LME zinc stocks saum 100,000 t | 20 ntu sib law liag | Lub Yim Hli nruj yog qhov nyem, tsis yog qhov tsis txaus. Kev rov qab los yuav tsum lwj. |
| Nyiaj ntsuab-rau-peb-hli kis rov qab rau hauv contango | Ib hlis puv | Lub khw tau tso tseg tsis them nyiaj tam sim ntawd. Tsau - nqe muab tau zoo dua. |
Tebchaws Meskas, luv luv
US mine ntau lawm poob kwv yees li ntawm 12 feem pua hauv 2025 txog 670,000 tonnes, raws li USGS, feem ntau los ntawm cov qib qis qis ntawm Red Dog hauv Alaska thaum nws mus txog qhov kawg ntawm kuv lub neej; Cov mines Middle Tennessee tau raug tshem tawm txij li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2023. Cov khoom siv hauv tsev ua kom zoo dua qub yog qhov tseem ceeb tsis hloov pauv, thiab cov khoom lag luam ntshuam rau cov zinc refined sawv ntawm 73 feem pua ntawm cov khoom siv pom tseeb, nrog Canada muab 57 feem pua ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj thiab Mexico 15 feem pua. Kev txhim kho kev ua haujlwm tau nce qib ntawm Bunker Hill hauv Idaho thiab Hermosa hauv Arizona, thiab qhov drilling tau tsom mus rau zinc nrog rau germanium thiab gallium - ib qho lus qhia ntawm qhov chaw uas US txoj cai txaus siab tiag tiag zaum.
Rau cov neeg yuav khoom hlau qhov no tseem ceeb tsawg dua qhov nws zoo li, vim tias zinc hlau yog tsim los ntawm cov qib siab zinc tshwj xeeb uas yog thoob ntiaj teb fungible. Nws tseem ceeb rau lub sij hawm coj mus kuaj thiab rau lub teb chaws - ntawm - cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm, tsis yog rau muaj.
FAQ
Puas yog zinc ua lag luam nyob rau hauv kev tsis txaus lossis nyiaj seem hauv 2026?
Ob leeg, nyob ntawm seb qhov twg ILZSG tso koj nyeem. Lub Plaub Hlis 23, 2026, pawg tau kwv yees ib xyoos puv - xyootsis txaus ntawm 19,000 tonnes. Thaum Lub Rau Hli 17, nws tau tshaj tawm txog 145,000 tonnes tshaj li lub Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Plaub Hlis, nrog cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm txog 58,000 tonnes. Kev sib haum xeeb lawv xav kom lub Tsib Hlis txog Lub Kaum Ob Hlis kom khiav 164,000 tonnes tsis txaus, tawm tsam lub Ib Hlis-Lub Plaub Hlis cov nyiaj seem khiav ntawm kwv yees li 36,000 tonnes hauv ib hlis - lub viav vias ntawm kwv yees li 77,000 tonnes ib hlis uas tseem tsis tau tshwm sim hauv cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb.
Cov nqi kho mob zinc yog dab tsi thiab vim li cas lawv thiaj li tsis zoo?
Cov nqi kho mob yog tus nqi uas tus miner them rau lub smelter los hloov cov concentrate rau hauv hlau. Qhov tsis zoo TC txhais tau hais tias lub smelter them tus miner rau txoj cai ua. Lub 2026 benchmark tau nyob ntawm USD 85 ib tonne qhuav ntawm Teck Resources thiab Kauslim Zinc, tab sis pom TCs CIF Tuam Tshoj tau soj ntsuam los ntawm Fastmarkets ntawm −USD 50 rau −USD 80 rau 12 Lub rau hli ntuj thiab −USD 70 rau −USD 120 thaum ntxov Lub Xya hli ntuj. Smelters tab tom sib tw rau qhov tsis txaus ntseeg thiab twv tus nqi qis dua xoom.
Vim li cas Suav zinc smelters tseem khiav ntawm cov nqi kho mob tsis zoo?
Cov nyiaj tau los. Roasting concentrate ua sulfur dioxide ntes lisulfuric acid, thiab concentrates kuj nqa nyiaj them, tooj liab thiab - tshiab hauv 2026 benchmark -germanium. Lub smelter absorbs qhov tsis zoo TC ntev npaum li cov kua qaub thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntau tshaj nws, thiab cov nroj tsuag tseem ua haujlwm los ntawm kev mloog zoo yuav ua ntej ntawm TCs zoo. Tshaj tawm ib nrab ntawm -2026 khiav-tus nqi txiav tsuas yog hais txog5 mus rau 10 feem pua, piav raws li kev saib xyuas-thiab- kev tu ntau dua li kev kaw haujlwm.
Puas yog zinc mine ntau dua txhais tau tias cov nqi zinc hlau qis dua?
Tsis ncaj qha, vim kuv cov zis thiab cov khoom ua kom zoo dua qub yog qhov sib txawv ntawm cov fwj. ILZSG tau tshaj tawm lub ntiaj teb zinc mine ntau lawm nce 1.1 feem pua thiab cov hlau ua kom zoo dua 3.5 feem pua ntawm Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Plaub Hlis 2026, thaum cov nqi kho mob poob rau tib lub sijhawm. Qhov kev sib xyaw ua ke txhais tau hais tias qhov kev txwv nyob nruab nrab ntawm kuv thiab smelter. Tuam Tshoj imported 16 feem pua ntau zinc hauv concentrates -954,000 tons- thiab tseem tsis tuaj yeem tshem cov kab smelter.
Dab tsi yuav ua pov thawj qhov bullish zinc rooj plaub tsis raug?
Peb yam uas pom tau. Yog tias qhov chaw TCs nyob qis dua -USD 50 ib tonne rau ib lub hlis twg uas tsis muaj cov khoom lag luam ua kom zoo poob rau xyoo, qhov nyem yog kev lag luam ntau dua li lub cev. Yog tias LME cov khoom lag luam tuav siab tshaj 100,000 tonnes rau nees nkaum zaug sib law liag, lub Yim Hli nruj yog qhov nyem thiab tsis yog qhov tsis txaus. Yog tias cov nyiaj ntsuab -rau-peb-hli kis rov qab mus rau contango rau ib hlis, lub khw tau tso tseg tsis them tam sim.
Yuav ua li cas nthuav tawm Tebchaws Meskas rau zinc ntshuam cuam tshuam?
Tseem ceeb heev. USGS kwv yees qhov kev cia siab ntawm ntshuam ntshuam rau cov zinc refined ntawm 73 feem pua ntawm cov khoom siv pom tseeb hauv 2025, nrog rau Canada muab 57 feem pua ntawm cov hlau refined ntshuam thiab Mexico 15 feem pua. US mine ntau lawm poob kwv yees li ntawm 12 feem pua hauv 2025 txog 670,000 tonnes, feem ntau los ntawm cov qib qis qis ntawm Red Dog hauv Alaska raws li kev ua haujlwm ze rau qhov kawg ntawm kuv lub neej; Middle Tennessee tau raug ncua txij li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2023. Cov khoom tsim tawm hauv tsev tseem tsis tau hloov pauv.
Tus so ntawm no zinc hlau series
- Zinc Hlau Nqe Nqe: Cuaj Hlis 2026- lub hli-los ntawm- hli 2026 LME nkhaus thiab qhov rov qab uas tau pib thaum Lub Xya Hli
- Kev siv zinc hlau- qhov twg cov hlau yeej mus, thiab vim li cas cov tshuaj tsuag thermal tsis xav tau galvanizing
- Zinc Hlau Quotation Reference- yuav ua li cas los tsim ib daim ntawv cog lus thaum lub nkhaus pem hauv ntej yog inverted
- Zinc Hlau Ntim Specification- pob hom raws li qhov xav tau teeb liab - dab tsi converters yog tooling rau
- Zinc Hlau Warehouse thiab Cia- yog vim li cas lub lag luam nrog cov nyiaj seem tseem rau txim rau qhov chaw cia tsis zoo
Hais txog ntawm qhov chaw no
- High Purity Zinc Hlau- nplooj ntawv cov khoom, nrog cov qhab nia peb tau npaj
- Zinc Hlau Kev Lag Luam txuas ntxiv loj hlob raws li kev xav tau thoob ntiaj teb nce
Npaj zinc hlau rau Q4 los yog ntau-hli txoj haujlwm?
Qhia rau peb lub tonnage thiab lub sij hawm xa tuaj thiab peb yuav hais tus nqi tshaj li lub npe LME hauv paus, nrog rau kev xaiv tus nqi rau txhua qhov khoom xa tuaj. Peb tseem yuav qhia rau koj paub meej yog tias peb xav tias koj lub sijhawm tsis raug - tus neeg muag khoom uas tsuas pom zoo nrog koj tsis muaj txiaj ntsig hauv kev ua lag luam no.
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✔Ntshiab zinc thiab Zn-Al alloy hlau, ASTM B833 puag hlau
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✔Teem caij shipping nqi ib lub hlis tus me nyuam
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✔Mill daim ntawv pov thawj thiab lub teb chaws - ntawm - cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm
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✔Ua siab ncaj nyeem seb puas yuav kho los yog ntab
Peb yuav tsis xa koj cov nqi kwv yees. Peb yuav qhia koj seb qhov nkhaus pem hauv ntej hais li cas thiab peb cov ntawv xaj yuav zoo li cas.
Qhov chaw thiab paub qhov khoob
ILZSG caij nplooj ntoos hlav 2026 kev kwv yees (zinc deficit 19,000 t; thov 14.00 Mt, +1.3%; refined output 13.99 Mt, +1.4%): Reuters, 23 Plaub Hlis Ntuj 2026. ILZSG preliminary January-April data (2026) +58 kt; mine ntau lawm +1.1%; ILZSG xov xwm tshaj tawm, 17 Lub Xya hli ntuj 2026. Kev kho tus nqi series nrog cov hnub tim thiab kev ntsuam xyuas lub cev: cov lus qhia kev lag luam thib ob luam tawm 13 Lub Xya Hli 2026, ua rau muaj kev ntsuam xyuas rau Fastmarkets; qhov 2026 benchmark ntawm USD 85 / dmt thiab 2024 thiab 2025 benchmarks ntawm USD 165 thiab USD 80 yog raws li nyias Fastmarkets qhia. Seokpo smelter fire, Young Poong, 9 Lub Xya Hli 2026, 325,000–400,000 t/y: tib qhov chaw. US 2025 mine ntau lawm 670 kt (−12%), Red Dog ore qib, Middle Tennessee raug ncua txij thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2023, Bunker Hill thiab Hermosa txoj kev loj hlob, net import reliance 73%, import sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, zinc tshooj, 6 Lub Ob Hlis Ntuj ME 2026 LWM series, LWM 2026. thiab 7 Sep 2026.
Peb tsis tau txais cov ntaub ntawv ntxiv:TC cov lus piav qhia yog thib ob- tes - peb tsis tau nyeem thawj Fastmarkets sau ntawv thiab hais saum toj no. ILZSG qhov kev kwv yees lub Plaub Hlis thiab Lub Rau Hli qhov tseeb tsis pom zoo thiab peb tau pom ob qho tib si tsis yog xaiv qhov uas txhawb nqa kev pom; peb tsis muaj peev xwm piav qhia tias yog vim li cas cov pab pawg tus lej tsiv mus deb. Peb tsis muaj Suav teb ua kom zoo zinc tso tawm daim duab rau lub Tsib Hlis-Lub Yim Hli 2026, yog li peb tseem tsis tuaj yeem sim thawj peb qhov tshwm sim. Germanium them nqi yog tshiab nyob rau hauv 2026 benchmark thiab peb tsis paub tus nqi them.